2010 HiMCM B题特等奖学生论文下载2663

2010 HiMCM B题特等奖学生论文下载2663

 

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论文摘要如下：
13th?Annual?High?School?Mathematical?Contest?in?Modeling?(HiMCM)?Summary?Sheet

 

(Please?attach?a?copy?of?this?page?to?each?copy?of?your?Solution?Paper.)

Team?Control?Number:?2663

Problem?Chosen:? B

Please?type?a?summary?of?your?results?on?this?page.?Please?remember?not?to?include?the? name?of?your?school,?advisor, or?team members on?this?page.

While?the?problem?did?not?give?any?specific?goal?for?decreasing?the?incidence?of?crime?in?the? city,?we?determined?that?an effective and practical?goal?for?the?city?is?to?reduce?violent?crime?by?10%?by? the?year?2020.??In?order?to?reduce the?amount?of?crime?in?the city,?we? first?created?a?model?that? calculated?incidence?of?violence?as?a?function?of?different?data?that?we?were?given.??We?determined? that some of the?provided?data?had?little?to?no?impact?on?the?amount?of?violent?crime.??Trying?to? incorporate?this?unhelpful information into our?model?would?make?it?less?accurate,?so?we?developed?a? way?to?decide?if?a?set?of?data?was?worth?considering.? When?we applied this method?to all?of?the?sets?of? data,?we?were?left?with?five?that?had?a?noticeable?correlation?with?violence.? These?five?values were?City? Population,?High?School?Graduation?Rate,?High?School?Dropout?Rate,?Prison?Population,?and?Percent?of? Parole?Violations.? With?these?five?variables?determined,?we?checked?to?make?sure?that?each? relationship?with?violence?was?roughly?linear, then?ran?a multivariate linear?regression?to?create?a? function?that?outputs?an?approximate?incidence?of?violence given?the?City?Population, High School? Graduation?Rate,?High?School?Dropout?Rate,?Prison?Population,?and?Percent?of?Parole?Violations.???When? we?tested?this?model against data that we?already?had,?there?was?relatively?low?error,?with? discrepancies?in?incidence?of?violence? ranging?from?15? crimes to less than 1?crime.

 

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